Ingufu za mudasobwa za AI zateje ibura ry'isoko; ibiciro bya fibre optique ya G652D G657A2 byazamutse bigera kuri New Highs Point

Kuva mu ntangiriro za 2026, isoko rya fibre optique ryagaragayemo izamuka ridasanzwe ry'ibiciro. Igiciro cya fibre optique gisanzwe cya G.652.D cyazamutse cyane kiva kuri 3usd kuri kilometero imwe mu mpera za 2025 kigera kuri 7.5usd kuri kilometero imwe. Ibiciro by'ibicuruzwa mu miyoboro imwe n'imwe byo gukwirakwiza byarenze ikimenyetso cya 7.5usd—bimwe ndetse birenga12USD kuri kilometero imwe y'ibanzeIgipimo cy’ibiciro—gushyiraho izamuka rishya ry’imyaka irindwi kugira ngo ibiciro birusheho kwiyongera. Hagati aho, insinga zidasanzwe zo mu rwego rwo hejuru nka G.657.A2 na G.654.E zagize izamuka rikomeye ry’ibiciro.

Abantu benshi baganiriye ku bijyanye n’inganda bagaragaje ko iri zamuka ry’ibiciro riterwa n’ubwiyongere bw’ibikenewe buturuka ku masoko menshi: ibikorwa remezo bya mudasobwa bya AI, gahunda ya "Eastern Data, Western Computing", n’uburyo bwo gukwirakwiza umuyoboro wa 5G mu buryo bwimbitse. Iri zamuka ry’ibikenewe ryiyongereyeho imbogamizi zikomeye ku bushobozi bwo gukora fibre optique mbere y’uko ikorwa ndetse n’ibicuruzwa bike byo mu nganda, bigatuma habaho ubusumbane hagati y’ibitangwa n’ibikenewe. Bitewe n’ibi bintu, ibiciro by’imigabane y’ibigo byashyizwe ku rutonde rwa A-share mu nganda za fibre optique, cable, na optique byakomeje kwiyongera. Ibigo bikomeye birimo gutanga raporo ku bitabo byuzuye by’amadosiye n’ivugurura ry’ibiciro ku nyungu zabyo, bigaragaza ko uru rwego ruri kugera ku ntera ikomeye—kuva mu cyiciro cy’intambara z’ibiciro kugera mu gihe cyo kuzamuka kw’inyungu.

**Izamuka ry'ibiciro bya Fiber y'amatara ryatangiye gukora neza**

Nk'"uburyo bw'imitsi" bw'ibikorwa remezo by'ikoranabuhanga, fibre optique ikora nk'uburyo bw'ibanze bwo kohereza ingufu za mudasobwa za AI, koroshya itumanaho rya 5G, guhuza ibigo by'amakuru, no gushyigikira umushinga wa "Eastern Data, Western Computing". Imikorere n'itangwa ryayo bigena umuvuduko n'ireme ry'iterambere ry'ubukungu bw'ikoranabuhanga.

Izamuka ry’ibiciro bya fibre optique ryatangiye mu gihembwe cya kane cya 2025 ryiyongera cyane mu kwezi kwa Mutarama na Gashyantare 2026. Iri si izamuka ry’ibiciro mu gace runaka gusa rigira ingaruka ku bipimo runaka, ahubwo ni izamuka ry’ibiciro mu byiciro byose by’ibicuruzwa n’imiyoboro yo kubikwirakwiza.

By’umwihariko, amakuru yavuye muri CRU agaragaza ko igiciro mpuzandengo ku isoko cya fibre ya G.652.D ifite uburyo bumwe—ubwoko bukoreshwa cyane mu itumanaho—cyazamutse kiva kuri yuan iri munsi ya 20 kuri kilometero imwe mu Gushyingo 2025 kigera kuri yuan iri hagati ya 40 na 50 kuri kilometero imwe mu kwezi kwa Gashyantare 2026. Inyongera ntarengwa ya buri kwezi yarenze 75%, bikuba kabiri ibiciro mu mezi atatu gusa.

Mu rwego rwo gutanga amasoko, izamuka ry’ibiciro icyarimwe mu masoko ayobowe n’ibigo by’ubucuruzi rirushaho kwemeza ukuri no kuramba kw’iri zamuka ry’ibiciro muri iki gihe.

Icyuho kiri hagati y’ibitangwa n’ibikenewe gikomeje kuba ingenzi mu izamuka ry’ibiciro. Guotai Haitong Securities ivuga ko, mu gihe hari izamuka rikomeye mu rwego rwa fibre optique, izamuka ry’ibiciro mu nganda zose ryemejwe. Nyuma yo guhura n’igitutu cyo kugabanuka mu gice cya mbere cy’umwaka ushize, ibiciro bya fibre optique byazamutse mu gice cya kabiri; uku kuzamuka kwatewe n’ubwiyongere bukabije bw’ibikenewe mu mahanga bya fibre G.657.A2, byateje impinduka mu bushobozi bw’umusaruro. Uko ubushobozi bwagiye buhinduka kuva kuri fibre G.652.D—bigatuma igabanyuka ry’ibitangwa ndetse bikongera buhoro buhoro igihe cyo kwishyura—ibiciro bya fibre optique byakomeje kuzamuka mu minsi ishize.

**Icyerekezo kizakomeza igihe runaka**

Izamuka rikomeje ry’ibiciro bya fibre optique muri iki gihe si ihindagurika ry’isoko ry’igihe gito riterwa n’ibitekerezo by’igihe gito; ahubwo ni ingaruka z’imikoranire y’ibintu byinshi, harimo kutahuza hagati y’ibitangwa n’ibikenewe, imiterere y’ibiciro ihamye, no kunoza imiterere y’inganda.

Muri izi mpamvu, ukwiyongera gukabije ku ruhande rw'ubusabe—hamwe n'imbogamizi zikomeye ku ruhande rw'ubusabe—ni byo bigize impamvu nyamukuru. Ukurikije uko ubusabe buhagaze, kubaka vuba ibikorwa remezo bya mudasobwa bya AI byagaragaye nk'ikintu cy'ingenzi cyateje imbere ubusabe bwa fibre optique.

Bitewe n’ishyirwa mu bikorwa ryagutse rya AI ikora neza n’uburyo bw’indimi nini, umuvuduko w’inyubako z’ibigo by’amakuru bya AI bikomeje kwihuta. Ikigo kimwe cy’amakuru cya AI gikoresha fibre optique inshuro eshatu kugeza kuri eshanu ugereranije n’ikigo gisanzwe cy’amakuru; bityo, icyifuzo cy’ibicuruzwa bitakaza igihombo kinini kandi byihuta cyane—ni ngombwa ku mikoranire y’imbere no kohereza amakuru hagati y’intera ndende—kirimo kwiyongera cyane.

Imikorere ya fiber optique yabanje yakunze guterwa no kwagura umurongo mugari cyangwa gushyiraho sitasiyo za 5G n'abakora itumanaho—imbaraga zigamije gukemura ikibazo cy'ibanze cyo “kumenya niba hari uburyo bwo guhuza amakuru.” Ariko, iyi gahunda iriho ubu iterwa no gushyigikira ibyifuzo bya mudasobwa bikoreshwa cyane mu buryo bwa AI—cyane cyane, gukemura ikibazo cyo “gutwara ingufu za mudasobwa.” Iyi mpinduka mu busabe—kuva ku rwego rwo kugera ku bakoresha ikoranabuhanga rigezweho rukajya mu byumba by'ibikoresho by'ingenzi na Data Center Interconnects (DCI)—byahinduye cyane cyane ibisabwa ku mitambiko yihariye y'amashanyarazi ikora neza kandi idafite igihombo kinini.

Muri icyo gihe, gukomeza guteza imbere ikoranabuhanga rya 5G no gushyira imiyoboro ya 6G mu bihe biri imbere nabyo bikomeje kongera ubwinshi bw'ingufu za optique. Ubukene bw'ingufu nyinshi mu miyoboro ya fronthaul na midhaul ya sitasiyo za 5G bwariyongereye cyane; ikindi kandi, ingamba nko kuvugurura icyaro no guteza imbere "Gigabit Cities" zirimo gutuma imiyoboro ya Fiber-to-the-Home (FTTH) izamuka ikagera kuri 10-Gigabit, bigatuma umubare w'ingufu uzamuka mu rwego rw'itumanaho rusanzwe.

Byongeye kandi, iterambere ryihuse ry’ibintu bishya bikoreshwa—nk’ikoranabuhanga rya interineti mu nganda, fibre optique y’imodoka, n’itumanaho ry’ikirere—byarushijeho kwagura ubushobozi bwo kwiyongera k’ubukene bwa fibre optique. Iri hinduka ryahinduye imiterere y’ubukene bw’inganda: kuva aho hashingiwe ku kugura ibintu mu buryo buhuriweho n’abakora itumanaho, rigenda ryerekeza ku buryo butandukanye kandi bugezweho bwo gukenera ibintu byinshi.

Ikintu kiranga ukwiyongera kw'ibiciro bya fiber optique muri iki gihe ni uko ari izamuka ry'ibiciro mu buryo *bw'imiterere*, riterwa ahanini n'uruhande rw'ubusabe. Kubaka ibikorwa remezo bya mudasobwa bya AI n'ibikorwa nka "Eastern Data, Western Computing" byateje ukwiyongera gukabije k'ubusabe bw'imigozi ya optique; icyarimwe, ubusabe bw'indege za gisirikare za FPV optique-fiber nabwo bwariyongereye cyane. Ariko, ku ruhande rw'ubusabe, inzitizi ku bushobozi bwo gukora fibre optique preforms (preform rods) zatumye bigorana gusubiza vuba uku kwiyongera. Uku kutumvikana hagati y'ubusabe n'ubusabe byatumye ibiciro byiyongera cyane kandi mu gihe gito. Bitandukanye n'ibyabaye mbere—aho izamuka ry'ibiciro ryaterwaga ahanini n'amasoko y'ubucuruzi bw'itumanaho n'izindi soko gakondo z'ubusabe, kandi aho ihindagurika ry'ibiciro ryari rigufi—iri zamuka ryiganjemo AI n'izindi nzego zikiri kuzamuka. Bigaragaza ihindagurika ry'imiterere y'igihe kirekire ribaho hagati y'impinduka zikomeye mu nganda; ukwiyongera k'ubusabe kurangwa no kuramba no ku rugero, aho kuba umusaruro w'ibitekerezo by'igihe gito.

Impamvu nyamukuru itera iyi gahunda yo kuzamuka kw'ibiciro ni imbogamizi mu bushobozi bwa fibre optique. Mu ruhererekane rw'inganda za fibre optique, fibre optique zigena aho ubushobozi bwo gutanga bugarukira; iki gice kirangwa n'imbogamizi nyinshi mu ikoranabuhanga, imikorere miremire yo kwagura ubushobozi, n'ibikenewe cyane mu gishoro, bigatuma bigorana ko serivisi zigendana n'ubwiyongere bw'ibikenewe. Mu gihe urebye imbere, niba ubushobozi bwo gukora fibre optique bugenda bugenzurwa buhoro buhoro binyuze mu gushyiraho ibikoresho bishya n'iterambere ry'ikoranabuhanga, ubusumbane bw'ibikenewe n'ibikenewe bushobora kugabanuka, kandi ibiciro bya fibre optique bizagenda bisubira ku rugero rukwiye. Ariko, niba iterambere rya AI n'izindi nzego birengeje ibyo byari byitezwe - bigakomeza, iterambere ry'ibikenewe rigakomeza - mu gihe kwaguka kw'ubushobozi bwa fibre optique bitagera ku byari byitezwe, ibiciro bishobora kuguma ku rwego rwo hejuru cyangwa bigakomeza kuzamuka mu gihe habayeho ihindagurika.

Mu gikorwa cyo gukora fibre optique, fibre optique preform (inkoni ya preform) ni cyo gice cy'ingenzi. Ifite 60% kugeza kuri 70% by'ikiguzi cyose cyo gukora kandi ikaba ari igice gifite imbogamizi nyinshi mu ikoranabuhanga n'ibisabwa byinshi mu ishoramari. Byongeye kandi, igihe cyo kubaka umurongo umwe wo gukora fibre optique ni kinini, akenshi kimara amezi 18 kugeza kuri 24—igikorwa kirekire kigizwe na byose kuva ku kwemeza umushinga, kugura ibikoresho, gushyiraho, no gutangira kugeza ku kongera ubushobozi bwo gukora.

Kuva mu 2019 kugeza mu 2024, inganda z’ibikomoka kuri fibre optique zari mu ntambara y’ibiciro y’igihe kirekire yagabanyije cyane inyungu z’ibigo. Kubera iyo mpamvu, ibigo byinshi byahisemo kugabanya amafaranga bikoresha mu nguzanyo, bituma ubushobozi bwo gukora bugabanuka cyane muri iki gihe.

Nubwo bimeze gutyo, abahanga mu nganda bemeza ko iri zamuka ridasanzwe ry’ibiciro bya fibre optique ridashobora kugabanuka vuba aha.

Izamuka ry'ibiciro by'imigozi y'urumuri bigaragaza ubuke bw'ibikoresho by'ibanze bishyigikira ubukungu bw'ikoranabuhanga. Nubwo iki gitutu cy'ikiguzi gishobora kuzashyirwa ku bashinzwe itumanaho, birashoboka cyane ko cyinjizwa mu musaruro rusange ujyanye n'iterambere ry'ibikorwa remezo bya AI. Igihe cyose isiganwa ku isi ry'ingufu za AI zikomeje kugabanuka, iki kibazo cy'imiterere - gishingiye ku kuvugurura ikoranabuhanga - ntigishobora gukemurwa byoroshye mu gihe gito binyuze mu kongera ubushobozi bw'umusaruro buriho. Ubusabe bukomeye bw'ibigo by'ikoranabuhanga bya mudasobwa bya bandwidth iri hejuru cyane no kohereza amakuru make bwabishyize mu mwanya wa moteri nyamukuru ituma icyifuzo cya fiber optique gikura, bityo bigahindura imiterere y'ubusabe bw'inganda za fiber. Ugereranyije n'ibigo by'amakuru bisanzwe, ibisabwa na fiber optique by'ikigo kimwe cy'ikoranabuhanga cya mudasobwa bishobora kuba byinshi - cyangwa birenga inshuro icumi -; urugero, itsinda risanzwe rya GPU rigizwe n'amakarita 10.000 rikenera ibirometero ibihumbi mirongo bya fiber-core gusa kugira ngo habeho guhuza seriveri imbere. Igice cy'ubusabe bwa fiber optique giterwa n'ikigo cy'amakuru cya AI na DCI (Data Center Interconnect) biteganijwe kwiyongera kuva munsi ya5% muri 2024 kugeza kuri 35% bitarenze 2027.